Bitcoin Could Collapse Another 50%, Says Michael “Big Short” Burry
Former hedge fund manager Michael Burry made another bearish prediction for Bitcoin and traditional equities. Renowned for his short position which preceded the U.S. housing market crash, and one of the periods in recent economic history for the world, Burry believes more pain for BTC’s price is ahead.
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Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $19,400 with an 8% loss in the past 7 days. The cryptocurrency was moving sideways around its 2017 all-time high levels, $20,000, but the market took yet another turn to the downside and might re-test its yearly lows near $17,000.
This could be a fraction of future losses, according to Burry. The former hedge fund manager has been bearish on BTC seems the cryptocurrency was trading north of $60,000, in October 2021. Via his Twitter account, Burry asked his followers tips on how to short a cryptocurrency:
Ok, I haven’t done this before, how do you short a cryptocurrency. Do you have to secure a borrow? Is there a short rebate? Can the position be squeezed and called in? In such volatile situations, I tend to think it’s best not to short (…).
A short time after, BTC’s price reached its current all-time high which could have resulted in major profits for Burry, if he was able to open a short position. In that case, he might still wait on taking profits, according to its latest prediction, traditional equities and BTC could experience more downside on the back of a bad earnings season:
Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there.
Some Good News For Bitcoin In The Short Term
Two experts recently shared potential bullish catalyzers for Bitcoin, at least for a short period of time. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for investment firm Fidelity, believes equities have a chance to rebound from their recent crash.
However, Timmer believes the risk-off season could extend further while bond yields trend upwards. In the upcoming earnings season for U.S. publicly traded companies, one could provide more clues on what’s next for the market, including Bitcoin which has been displaying a correlation with traditional equities.
With bond yields down and equities up, the correlation between the two asset classes remains slightly positive on a 12-month basis. It’s rare to see the Z-score for both stocks and bonds so negative at the same time. pic.twitter.com/BhJ8BklPmo
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 1, 2022
On the other hand, Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone has been expecting a drop in the price of commodities. If these assets trend to the downside, the Fed might slow down on its economic tightening and provide risk-on assets like Bitcoin with some room for relief.
Commodities rallying often indicate high inflation, they suggest the opposite when they trend to the downside which could suggest the U.S. financial institution might be succeeding at cutting down inflation, currently their apparent number one priority. McGlone said:
Commodities Aren’t Complicated, 1H Was High: When the history of 2022 is written, there’s a good chance that the 1H pump in commodity prices will play out like similar surges in the past, with a reciprocal dump.
Timmer and other experts believe that negative news on the economy, talks of economic recession, and a sustained market crash might allow the Fed to become more dovish on its monetary policy. The market has reacted to the downside as a result of the Fed, but some believe this will be insufficient to stop inflation.
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed doubts about a less aggressive monetary policy. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Powell said bringing down inflation will result in “some pain” for global markets. Does this mean Burry will be right as in 2008?